Boston College @ Northwestern Preview

So, I was sitting around in my nice new room in 626 Emerson, with nothing to do. "I could work on unpacking," I thought. However, my laziness, exacerbated by the tedium and exhaustion of band camp, responded with a hearty "nah." But then, while reading up on my beloved 'Cats, I noticed there is a link to this blog on the wonderful NUHighlights page. "Gee," I thought, "Any time anyone clicks that link, they are met with a preview of the oh-so-thrilling Ticket City Bowl. I should remedy that." The lazy part of me chimed in with an enthusiastic, "And it sure beats the heck out of unpacking." So remedying the situation is exactly what I shall do. So let's dive ride in, and check out a position-by-position breakdown of these teams.

Quarterbacks

Northwestern: The Wildcats have been splitting time between Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian under center. Many expected Kain to be the true starter this year. They cited his athleticism, arguing the importance of such a factor in our offense, especially with a suspect offensive line, as well as his leadership. And started he has. However, many (myself included) argued that Trevor should see significant play time as well, believing him to have a vastly superior arm to Colter. And indeed, he has seen a fair amount of play time, even especially in critical situations. Pundits frequently--I would argue too frequently--slam two quarterback systems, but the fact is, the system has worked quite effectively for NU. Kain has struggled a bit throwing the ball, completing only 58.3% of his passes (quite low by Northwestern QB standards) for a mere 88.5 completion percentage. However, he has protected the ball (0 INTs), and his frightening athleticism has been important for Northwestern, allowing him to run the option effectively. Excluding sacks, he has carried the ball 23 times for 128 yards, good for 5.6 yards per carry. He has also been effective at pitching the ball out to Venric Mark in space on option plays. Trevor has proven to be a far greater passing presence. Despite seeing significantly fewer series than Colter, Siemian has managed to complete 66.7% of his passes for 84.5 yards per game, 1 TD, and 0 INTs mostly in high-leverage situations. And while he is by no means the running threat Colter is (he has only one non-sack rush attempt: a 9 yard scramble), he contributes to the running game in other ways. Specifically, the threat of downfield passes forces the safeties back and gives the NU running backs more space between the tackles. Expect Northwestern's two-QB system to get further refined, and more deadly, in the coming weeks.
Boston College: BC's starting QB duties fall on junior Chase Rettig, and he is certainly an interesting figure. Initially he scared me a bit. I saw the 441 yards he dropped on Miami and worried about what he would do to our secondary. I also had vivid memories of the 375 yards he put up against us last year. However, aside from those performances, he has not been terribly impressive. He has only completed 57.8% of his passes this year (note: this is lower than Colter's "quite low" percentage). Furthermore, last year, he had the following mediocre totals: 53.6% completion percentage, 1,978 yards through the air passing, 12 TDs, and 9 INTs. He is not much of a running threat either. Excluding sacks, he has only carried the ball 21 times for 49 yards. If the NU secondary plays up to last week's standards, I expect him to have an OK, but not great, day.
Advantage: Northwestern

Running Backs

Northwestern: For the first time since Tyrell Sutton, NU has an everyday back: Venric Mark. And, boy, he's been good. He's carried the ball 38 times for 205 yards and a TD and has looked good doing it. He has bounced off tackles, fought for extra yards, and made guys miss. It really makes you wonder what he'd be doing behind a better offensive line. The problem, however, is that no other backs have been even slightly successful. Treyvon Green, Mike Trumpy, and Tyris Jones have managed a measly 19 yards on 15 carries. However, as long as Venric stays healthy (although his size is a cause for concern here), the NU backfield is in good shape. 

Boston College: BC has split carries between 3 guys, Andre Williams, Rolandan Finch, and Tahj Kimble. Williams has received a large plurality of the carries, but has not been terribly successful, as he has had 32 carries for 110 yards (only 3.44 yards per carry). Finch has averaged 5.29 yards per carry and Kimble has managed 4.92, but on only 17 and 12 carries respectively. Williams and Finch are listed as co-starters on this week's depth chart. Overall, this appears to be another OK, but not great, unit for BC. 

Advantage: Northwestern 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Northwestern: Northwestern's receiving corps, at least in theory, is supposed to be one of the best and deepest in the Big Ten. It's hard not to get excited about a unit that contains Demetrius Fields, Kyle Prater, Rashad Lawrence, Christian Jones, Tony Jones, etc. However, the unit has far underperformed expectations this year, often looking shaky catching the ball. Pat Fitzgerald, however, was not shy about calling out his receivers' poor performance, and I am certain wide receiver play was this week's number one focus. Expect this unit to improve by orders of magnitude. 

Boston College: The BC Receiver/Tight End corps is not terribly impressive, thanks primarily to a series of injury. Their three leading receivers from last year (Colin Larmond, Jr., WR; Bobby Swigert, WR; and Chris Pantale, TE) are out with injuries. As a response, BC has had to dive a bit deeper in totheir depth chart, giving Spiffy Evans and Johnathan Coleman targets, as well as throwing a lot to running backs (two of their top three receivers this year fall into that category). However, a substantial plurality of the catches have gone to Junior receiver Alex Amidon, last year's number four receiver, and I would not expect this to change against NU. Overall, BC is seriously lacking in depth in this unit.

Advantage: Northwestern by a landslide

Offensive Line

Northwestern: Northwestern's Offensive line has not been terribly impressive. Against Syracuse, both Siemian and Colter were feeling substantial pressure all day, and Mark had success despite their play, not because of it. If it weren't for the electric athleticism of Colter and Mark, the problems with the line would likely be all the more glaring. This is by a large margin NU's worst offensive unit. 

Boston College: Full disclosure, I'm working entirely off paper here; I have not seen much BC offensive line game footage, but the first thing that stands out is that they are huge. The smallest starter on the line in both height and weight is 6-3, 300 lbs. That's impressive. They have also allowed only 2 sacks. So, honestly,  I don't know much about this unit, but it seems potentially solid. 

Advantage: Boston College by Default

Defensive Line

Northwestern: Last year, Northwestern's defensive line was a tremendous disappointment. This year shows some sign of improvement however. Tyler Scott could be a star, and Brian Arnfelt and Quentin Williams have shown significant potential. Ifeadi Odenigbo also has significant talent, but is very undersized. Hard to say what we'll get from him. Expect this to be a solid, but not great, unit for Northwestern

Boston College: Honestly, I don't know much at all about Boston College's defensive line, other than the fact that they've recorded only one sack, and one of their games was against Maine. That number should be higher. They also recorded only 8 sacks all year last year. That's awful. That's less than half of Northwestern's disappointing 17. 

Advantage: Northwestern

Linebackers 

Northwestern: This is supposed to be NU's best defensive unit and they certainly played the part last week.  Chi Chi Ariguzo seems to be the star of the unit, recording 10 total tackles, 3 for loss, against Vandy. The other starters, Proby and Nwabuisi, contributed 5 and 6 total tackles respectively. The unit as a whole played a big role in Northwestern's solid defense against the run, and the backups, Colin Ellis and Roderick Goodlow have shown promise as well. 

Boston College: It's hard to make a judgment on the Boston College starting linebackers. They have been very successful tacklers. The three of them have recorded 54 total tackles. However, no linebacker on the team has yet recorded a tackle in the backfield. 

Advantage: Northwestern, by a bit

Defensive Backs

Northwestern: Oh, the defensive backs... Last year, Northwestern was horrendous in this area, with the only bright spot being the now-departed Brian Peters. The unit frequently had almost unbelievably bad breakdowns, and it seemed other teams could complete 40 yard passes almost at will. This trend seemed to continue into game one. While Ibraheim Campbell and Nick VanHoose looked promising, Davion Fleming and Demetrius Dugar were absolutely tortured by the Syracuse offense. For game two, Fleming was replaced by Jared Carpenter who looked pretty solid. Dugar also stepped up his game, and while VanHoose got injured, Quinn Evans looked pretty good filling in. It's hard to say which secondary will show up this week. 

Boston College: It's tough to know what to say about the BC defensive backs. They embarrassed the Maine passing game, but that's not exactly a feat. However, they also successfully shut down the Miami game, which is at least slightly more impressive. All in all, however, I honestly do not know what to expect from this unit. 

Advantage: BC, tentatively

Special Teams

Northwestern: First punting: While not all of Brandon Williams's punts are winners, I really like him back there. He has a very strong leg at his best, and he has placed some punts beautifully. 

Place kicking: Jeff Budzien has added some range this year and has looked absolutely perfect on his kicks thus far. 

Return game: Venric Mark is unbelievable. 

Boston College: Punting: Greg Levano is averaging 41.7 yards per punt. That's pretty solid. 

Place kicking: Nate Freese is a perfect 5-5 this year on field goals, but was only 10-16 last year. 

Return game: They don't have anyone of Venric's caliber, but Spiffy Evans did return a punt for a touchdown. 

Advantage: Northwestern, based solely on the Venric factor. 

Prediction

Well, Northwestern won 6 of 8 position battles, and, frankly, I think the game will be a similar blowout. If I were a superstitious man, I would not say this, but I think Northwestern wins by 20. Yes, I know all of our games are close, but we are vastly better team than Boston College, and I sense a different attitude from this team than in past years. I think we have a chip on our shoulder and it will show. 

Go 'Cats!

TicketCity Bowl Preview

I have received many requests to preview our bowl game, so I will waste no more time and comply. First a little background info. The TicketCity bowl is in its inaugural season and will be played at noon eastern time in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas. It will be shown on ESPN U and will feature the Texas Tech Red Raiders and, of course, our Northwestern Wildcats. Now that the basics our taken care of, let's take a point-by-point look at our opponent, the Red Raiders.

• Coach: Tommy Tuberville is the first-year coach of Texas Tech. He got the position following Texas Tech's firing of Mike Leach after a strange controversy over the alleged mistreatment of a player. Anyways, Tuberville has been a very successful coach throughout his career, during which he previously also coached Ole Miss and Auburn, holding a 117-65 record, with a 6-3 record in bowl games. Despite going 7-5, this season was most likely a disappointment for Tuberville,but I expect him to shine in the future as he continues to transition the pass-heavy Red Raiders into a more balanced team, the type of style he has used in the past.
• Pass Offense: Texas Tech under Mike Leach was a pass-heavy team, to say the least. In 2007, TT averaged an insane 470.3 pass yrds/game, subsequently averaging 413.2 and 386.8 in '08 and '09 respectively. Tommy Tuberville, despite running a less pass-heavy offense than Leach, still has a team averaging an impressive 314.8 yrds/game, 8th best in the country. The quarterback of this passing attack is the senior quarterback Taylor Potts,  who has thrown 31 TDs this season (6th in the country) while completing 66.0% of his passes (18th) and has thrown 8 or 9 interceptions depending on where you look (how there can be a discrepancy on interception stats, I have no idea). Particularly scary about the Texas Tech pass offense is their ability to spread the ball to a number of receivers. 8 TT players have 25+ receptions this season. Compare this to the 'Cats who only have 3 players in this category. The primary threat, however, is Lyle Leong, a senior who has pulled in a frightening 17 TDs (2nd in the country), with 64 recoveries and 808 yrds. The second greatest threat is Detron Lewis, a senior with 79 catches, 803 yards, and 6 TDs. One other interesting point is that no one listed as a tight end shows up on Texas Tech's reception stat sheet. In fact, it seems they don't even have any on the roster. Expect Texas Tech to have 4-5 WRs on the field for just about every play.                                                           The question is, how does this look for the 'Cats? The answer: not great. NU's pass defense has been pretty lousy, letting up 230.5 yards/game (85th), and they haven't seen any teams who run an offense even remotely like the Red Raiders. I don't think the corners will have much success keeping up with TT's receivers, so our safeties will have to step it up big time. Also, the 'Cats will most likely have to play a lot in the nickel to guarantee they can cover every receiver, so expect Hunter Bates to see lots of playing time.
• Rush Offense: TT has not traditionally been a running team, and while they can by no means be seen as a smashmouth running team this year, the backs are seeing a few more carries. The Red Raiders average 137.8 yards per game on the ground (81st), with the plurality of these yards coming from senior Baron Batch. Batch has picked up 805 yards and 5 TDs on 172 carries. Most of the rest of the running burden has fallen on sophomore Eric Stephens, who has 542 yards and 5 TDs on 113 carries. Don't expect Potts to be a threat in the running game. He has -15 yards on 31 carries.                                                                                             All of this bodes fairly well for the 'Cats, especially Potts's apparent inability to run. QB runs, or the threat of QB runs, have been the death of the 'Cats this year (see Purdue and Illinois). And while the 'Cats cannot completely ignore the Red Raider running backs, it seems they can thankfully put the majority of their focus into defending the passing game.

Northwestern vs. St. John's Recap

Well, the 'Cats finally lost. NU was defended well by an athletic St. John's team using a man-to-man defense, and the 'Cats' zone could not keep the Red Storm out of the post. Northwestern particularly struggled in the second half, being outscored 48-29. Luka looked completely overmatched, despite 12 rebounds, scoring only 2 points. St. John's shot 60.8% from the field and 50.0% from the arc, while Northwestern was at only 41.0 and 37.0. St. John's is clearly a very good, highly athletic team who has simply underachieved up to this point; however, the 'Cats will no doubt face tougher tests in the Big 10 and absolutely must improve.

NU vs St. John's Game Thread

I will be using the comment space of this post to write about the game in real time, and anyone else can feel free to write comments or observations. Go 'Cats!

NU Basketball Thus Far

Northwestern is 7-0, and with our next game being played tonight, it seems as good a time as ever to break my long hiatus from blogging. So let's take a look at the 'Cat's season thus far.

NU has only played 7 games up to this point, well below the national average, so it is a bit hard to make definitive claims, but it still appears Northwestern is a very good team, particularly on the offensive front. So far, the 'Cats have put up 80.0 points per game, good for 24th nationally (out of 346 teams) and first in the Big Ten. They have also shot .507 from the field, good for 5th in the country, and they are third in the country in adjusted field goal percentage (a measure that weights the value of 3-point shots) with a .595, behind only Kansas and Georgetown. It can be argued that these outstanding statistics are due only to the defensive weakness of Northwestern's opponents, but the Wildcats put up 91 against Georgia Tech, whose defense has otherwise been fairly solid. And even if these numbers are bolstered by weak competition, they are still rather remarkable. So the 'Cats are clearly having a good offensive year, but what factors have led them to be just as good as they are?

• John Shurna: Shurna has been All-American quality good so far this season. It is difficult to explain just how much he has contributed to the team. He has dropped 23.7 points per game, 9th best in the country, despite having fewer shot attempts per game than anyone else in the top 35 in scoring. This is due in large part to an unreal shooting percentage. Shurna has knocked down an almost unbelievable 64.3% of his shots. The only other perimeter players with  even remotely comparable shooting percentages are Kyle Cassity of St. Louis and Ayron Hardy of Jacksonville with .627 and .622 shooting percentages respectively. He also holds an insane .622 3-pointer percentage, 4th best in the country, while averaging more attempts per game than anyone else in the top 20. Add his 3.1 assists per game, 4.7 rebounds per game, 1.4 steals per game, and 1 block per game, and it begins to become clear just how valuable this guy is. 
• Michael "Juice" Thompson: The other half of "John and Juice" and the 'Cats' only senior starter, Juice is an extremely important part of the team. By far the best ball handler on the team, Juice has started driving to the basket more this year, making him an increasingly dangerous part of the offense. While his perimeter shooting is down a bit this year (.396 behind the arc), he still can be extremely dangerous if left open, and his overall shooting percentage is at a career high of .494. His 16.3 ppg and 4.6 apg are also at career highs. 
• Drew Crawford: Crawford has been somewhat off and on this season, and seems to still be trying to figure out his role, but when he is good, he is very good. He sometimes seems to take too many outside shots and is averaging only .313 behind the arc, so he should probably back off many of these. He has otherwise been very solid with a .457 FG% and 13.9 ppg. 
• Luka Mirkovic: I really don't know whether to say Luka has been good or bad this year. He frequently looks very sloppy, but his production has to be evaluated as being at least decent. He is averaging only 6.9 ppg, but he is shooting .500 and turning the ball over rarely, with a very good 2.43 assists per turnover. His 7.0 rebounds per game are also well over his career average. While the center position will not be Northwestern's strong suit, and Luka may not be the Wildcats' greatest asset, he has not been a liability. 
• Ball Movement/Control: The 'Cats this year have played smart, safe basketball, picking up loads of assists while protecting the ball. Northwestern's 17.6 assists per game is 12th best in the country, while their 10.6 turnovers per game is 8th best in the country. This leaves their assist to turnover ratio at 1.66, 3rd best in the nation. 

Clearly there is a lot to like about the 'Cats so far, but there are surely some areas in need of improvement as well, let's take a look at those:

• Rebounds: Northwestern's 31 rebounds per game leaves them at 320th in the nation and dead last in the Big 10. This clearly is a bad stat, and no matter how I spin it, it is not good. However, I can come to the 'Cats' defense a bit. Northwestern is actually outrebounding their opponents, who are average 30.9 rebounds per game. To put it simply, there are not many  rebounds to get in 'Cats games due to a lack of missed shots. Because the 'Cats don't miss many shots, they average only 8 offensive rebounds per game. 
• Opponent Field Goal Percentage: Opponents have shot .436 against Northwestern, leaving the NU defense 210th in this category. Fortunately, coverage behind the arc has been somewhat better, as opponents have shot .323 for threes, leaving NU 125th in this category. 
• Steals: Northwestern has 8 steals per game, which is by no means a bad number, but Northwestern runs primarily a 1-3-1 defense. This is a defense predicated around forcing turnovers, so you know the 'Cats want this number to improve. 
• Free Throws: The 'Cats are shooting .694 from the line, which, again, is not a terrible number, but you would expect better from such a good shooting team. 

So Northwestern is far from perfect, but I will absolutely take what we have seen from them thus far. Now that we have seen what the 'Cats have looked like thus far, let's break down tonight's game.

Northwestern tonight will be playing the Terriers of St. Francis, a private, 2,300-person school from New York. The Terriers have an RPI of 172, compared to Northwestern's of 51. They are a 6-3 team averaging 65.3 ppg, while allowing 61.7 ppg. Their shooting has been well below Northwestern standards at .420 from the floor and .341 from behind the arc, but they have slightly outrebounded the 'Cats with 31.2 per game. The Terriers have a lousy .74 assist to turnover ratio but have a pretty decent 8.2 steals per game. By all accounts, this should be an easy Wildcat victory, and I would expect Northwestern to win by 20.

One final note: I have gotten way behind on blogging. There are a lot of things I want to cover that I just haven't gotten around to and likely may not. If there is anything any of y'all want me to discuss, let me know in the comments, and I'll try to get to it. I'm curious what you all want to read about.

Northwestern Bowl Selection

As you no doubt have noticed, I haven't posted in a while. Moral of the story: Finals are time-consuming. I will pick up posting again soon, but for now I just want to report Northwestern's bowl is now official. We will be playing Texas Tech on New Year's Day in the TicketCity Bowl in Dallas. Not the best bowl ever, but hopefully it will give us an opportunity to end our bowl drought.

Iowa Recap and Illinois Preview

I just got back from the Wildcats' Men's Basketball home opener where they had an easy 71-45 victory over AR-Pine Bluff. Not the best test of our team's ability, but I think we'll have a good team this season. Now on to football.
Quarterbacks: What can be said about Dan Persa? He was great. Big Ten player of the week great. He went 32-43 with 2 touchdowns, along with 50 yards rushing on 18 carries. His one interception and at least 3 incompletions were due to solely bad drops by his receivers. Most astounding about Persa's game was the game winning drive he orchestrated, running the game at just the right tempo and always making the best decisions. And then, just our luck, he went down with a season-ending injury. Replacing him will be Evan Watkins, and no one knows with certainty what type of quarterback he will be, but we know this much: He is a 6-6, 240lb+ beast of a human being with a cannon of an arm (that may not be the most accurate) and above-average running ability. I expect him to be a Mike Kafka-type, but whether they use him as running-Kafka or passing-Kafka is beyond me.
Running Backs: Mike Trumpy was the running back against the Hawkeyes getting 15 of 19 non-Persa runs, picking up 51 yards in the process. I expect him to remain the feature back against the Illini, and he should have a good game due to Illinois's below-average run defense. However, I expect Adonis Smith to play more of a role in this game.
Defense: Overall, the run defense was outstanding. I have never seen a 'Cats defense make that many plays in the backfield. This was due in large part to Nate Williams's stellar game, and Quentin Davie certainly contributed. This rush defense will need to show up at Wrigley to stop Illinois top-notch running game.
Punting: Wow, teams simply cannot return punts against Northwestern. Obviously, credit needs to be given to the punter, Brandon Williams, but I give most of the credit to our outstanding gunners, particularly Jeravin Matthews. Wow, wow, wow.
Officiating: I have been regularly checking both Hawkeye and NU blogs since the game, and ridiculous claims have been made on both sides. Iowa fans have said NU only one because they held on every play. To this I would respond that I saw some extremely blatant holds by Iowa linemen that did not get called either. The refs apparently just decided holding would not be a penalty for the game. On the flip side, NU fans are up in arms about 3 different intentional grounding calls/no-calls. To this I would respond: watch the tape. At least one, maybe two of these were the right call, and the other call(s) were at least borderline. Chill out, everyone.
Fans: I have a lot to say on this topic. First, I was a little disappointed by the NU student section showing. That being said, the fans who were at the game were very loud and very supportive, and this was well-backed by the stadium DJ's music choices near the end of the game. As for the Iowa fans there, I know they do not represent all Hawkeye fans, but I was extremely disappointed. These were far-and-away the most classless fans I have ever had to deal with. I now see why so many people around Northwestern hate the Hawkeyes so much (the fact that they threw batteries at the band a few years back probably doesn't help). Again, I know enough good, classy Hawks fans and have lived in Iowa City long enough to know that this is not what all of the University of Iowa is like, but people seeing these drunken idiots have no choice but to use that as their image of Iowa City. Hawks fans, please represent our city with more class.

Overall this was a thrilling, albeit not entirely unexpected victory for the Wildcats. It was by far the best game NU has played yet, and hopefully they will bring that momentum into the end of the season. Now for the highlights:




And tomorrow, we play a highly-anticipated but unfortunately gimmicky game in Wrigley Field. While some recent decisions, including the goofy one-endzone decision, have ruined some people's perception of the game, the on-field action should still be exciting.
My prediction: Northwestern 28-Illinois 24